With Starmer at −46% approval and Labour polling third nationally, these are the first major test since the collapse. Losing councils held for decades would intensify pressure on his leadership ahead of the general election.

Can 26% national polling translate into councillors? Local elections favour parties with strong ground operations — traditionally the Lib Dems and Conservatives. Reform have the votes on paper but turning supporters into a local campaign machine is a different challenge entirely.

Fresh from winning Gorton & Denton and polling at 17% nationally, the Greens could make significant gains in university cities and inner-city wards where their coalition of young and graduate voters is concentrated.

Every Scottish council is contested. The SNP's Westminster decline to 3% UK-wide may not reflect local strength, but a bad night north of the border would test whether their coalition is still holding.

Many of these seats were last fought in 2021–22 when the Conservatives were at their local high-water mark. They face defending gains made under Boris Johnson while their national vote has since collapsed — creating a painful mismatch.